The apartment market is slowing down in a number of metros nationwide, with most markets falling into one of two buckets of underperformance. Metros in the southeast and southwest are experiencing some of the most new construction since the 1980’s resulting in immense new supply pressure, despite some of the strongest demand drivers in the nation.
Denver apartment fundamentals are holding firm and growing slowly as we near the end of 2023. However, in this market growth of any kind is good growth, as most markets are experiencing declining fundamentals.
Phoenix has seen a rapid slowdown over the past year, as apartment performance declined amid high supply. However, as we near the end of 2023, leading indicators are beginning to show signs of strength for Phoenix multifamily.
Atlanta’s apartment market is struggling as new supply weighs heavily on performance from the property level all the way to the market level. The local economy continues to flourish as job growth and population growth remain among the best in the country, however the onslaught of new apartment construction has outpaced demand.
While Seattle is not commonly referred to as a Gateway market, its fundamentals often follow many of the tech-heavy Gateway’s on the west coast and in the northeast. As the multifamily industry cools amid significant new supply pressure, Seattle is once again trending like its peers. Traffic, overall occupancy, and occupancy growth are tracking in line with Los Angeles and Boston, while significant rent declines are tracking with San Francisco.
The San Antonio market has been among the weakest performing MSAs in the nation over the past year, as a once hot apartment market has turned negative quickly. All key indicators lag the national average and are also negative on both short and long-term bases.
Over the past three years, one of the steadiest and best performing markets nationwide has been San Diego. The Southern California metro did not experience as significant of a decline in housing demand and rents seen in Los Angeles and San Francisco in the early days of COVID-19, but the metro had a very strong recovery in 2021 and 2022.
Boston, like many of its northeastern peer markets, is known for its older apartment stock and higher percentage of single-family homes compared to secondary markets in the south and west. However, as the market is known for innovation, it’s apartment market has grown and evolved quickly over the past few real estate cycles.
As multifamily fundamentals have been deteriorating nationwide, performance in the second largest U.S. city has been mediocre in recent months. While many key operating metrics declined over the past 12 months, Los Angeles is holding its own and its’ declines are modest L.A. is not growing like its Gateway peer markets in the Northeast and Midwest, yet it’s also not declining like San Francisco.
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