Chart Of The Week – June 25th 2023

In this week’s Radix Chart of the Week, we examine the relationship between leased percentage and occupancy rate. In recent years, the variance between leased percentage and occupancy has bottomed out in late Q4 or Q1, before rising dramatically during the prime rental season. This aligns with a normal rental season as residents are signing new leases in the spring, even if they are not moving in until the summer. The variance often peaks in July or August at around 1.5%, meaning the leased percentage at a property is 1.5% higher than the occupancy rate.

This year however, there has been a muted increase in the variance between the two metrics thus far. Leased percentages have picked up modestly and occupancy rates have declined. So the variance is coming not from rapidly increasing leased percentages and lagging occupancy gains, but from overall occupancy declines. Along with other leading indicators such as traffic and new leases signed, the limited increase in leasing percentage and the condensed variance between leasing percentage and occupancy indicates that fundamental growth in 2023 will be softer than we anticipated at the beginning of the year.