Rent and Operating Trends – Week of January 1st 2023

Welcome to 2023! We at Radix are very excited for the year ahead and cannot wait to continue our growth story in the months to come. We thank you for being part of our journey and we look forward to continuing to provide the best data, analytics and platforms we can to help you make the right decisions for your property operations and investment.

As we look ahead, there will undoubtedly be challenges for the multifamily industry in the coming year. The macro-economy continues to soften driven mostly by persistent inflation and the resulting monetary tightening. For much of the past 14 years, interest rates hovered at or near zero. The elongated stretch of easy money allowed many companies to form and grow and other companies to achieve historic valuations. Those days are most certainly behind us, and while I do not think inflation or interest rates will remain as high as they are today, I do not see an economic situation arising that would warrant zero interest rates for quite some time, if ever. We will likely see additional softening in the employment market, although it remains a strength of the overall economy. Investment activity will also slow as buyers and sellers grapple with new interest rate expectations and challenges persist on how to value properties in the current borrowing environment.

While the economy and multifamily market has changed drastically over the past year, many of the demographic and social trends continue, domestic migration being one of them. According to Uhaul’s annual one-way truck rental analysis, Texas, Florida and the Carolinas were once again the most attractive destinations for movers in 2022. California, Illinois and New York saw the most outmigration as the coastal gateway markets continue to lose population to more affordable and less regulated locations. Overall migration slowed last year compared to record highs in 2021, however the same trends carried through, with the sunbelt benefiting from midwestern and northeastern outmigration. Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona and Georgia were all in the top 10 states for in-migration, while the popular southwestern states Colorado, Utah and Nevada ranked 11^th, 12^th, and 13^th respectively.  

The multifamily industry had a quiet week last week as expected, with most leading indicators showing little if any changes. New leases signed and net effective rent were unchanged last week, while traffic, occupancy and leased percentage fell modestly. I anticipate greater activity in the coming weeks as the new year begins.