Radix Weekly Data Report – June 17th
Leading Indicators Continue to Improve from Pandemic Impact

The seven-day period ending on June 17 brought more good news for the apartment industry, according to our most recent data report.

The data reaffirmed the positive trends we saw during the preceding week, and it is becoming clearer that all the leading indicators are on the mend and are erasing year-over-year deficits. On a national basis and in most metropolitan statistical areas, traffic and leases are increasing week over week, which is leading to WoW increases in occupancy and leased percentage rates.

Net effective rents were also up WoW in eight of the 21 MSAs tracked by Radix during the week ending on June 17. The national net effective rent was $1,734; that’s down 20 basis points from the preceding week and down 4.5% from the same time last year. On a positive note, the WoW drop was smaller than the one during the preceding week.

With that background, here are some of the notable takeaways from the week ending on June 17:

  • Nationally, traffic was up 6.3% WoW and down 19.8% YoY. During the week ending on June 10, the YoY was still behind at 22.7%.
  • On a national basis, leases were up 2.2% WoW and down just 0.7% when compared with the same time last year.
  • The national occupancy (92.85%) and leased percentage (94.75%) rates were up WoW by 12 basis points and 14 basis points, respectively. The YoY deficits for both metrics are getting smaller, and with positive trends in traffic and leases, we should see occupancy and leased percentage rates continue to gain strength across the country.
  • As for individual MSAs, Miami, Riverside, Calif., and Tampa, Fla., saw the largest WoW increases in occupancy. Meanwhile, the West Coast is home to some of the largest YoY declines in occupancy, with San Diego (-3.32%), Seattle (-3.08%), San Jose, Calif. (-2.72%), San Francisco (-2.58%), and Los Angeles (-2.49%) all among the six markets with the largest annual declines. San Antonio (-2.91%) also is in the top six.
  • The $3 WoW dip in the national net effective rent represented the smallest decline in weeks. MSAs with the strongest WoW gain in rent were Riverside (1.0%), Las Vegas (0.9%) and Phoenix (0.3%).

Radix Weekly Data Report – June 10th

Signs of Optimism for the Apartment Market

With states opening up from their pandemic shutdowns, May’s employment numbers were a pleasant surprise (finally, some good news!)

It looks like these trends are positively impacting the apartment industry. During the week ending on June 10, we saw some of the most encouraging signs of improvement in leading indicators since the pandemic hit.

According to Radix, both traffic and leases were up. If this trend continues, we should start to see the year-over-year declines in occupancy and leased percentage rates begin to compress. As of June 10, the occupancy and leased percentage rates were down by 1.72% and 1.34%, respectively, from the same time last year.

In addition, even the week-over-week decline in net effective rent has started to slow. Perhaps with improvements in leading indicators and occupancy and leased percentage, we will see a gradual stabilization in rent as well.

Now that you have the broad-picture summary, let’s dig into some of the specific takeaways from the week of June 10: 

  • Nationally, traffic was up 12% WoW. It’s still down 22.7% YoY, but that’s a smaller gap than earlier in the pandemic.
  • On a national basis, leases increased by 17.8% WoW. Leases also were up by 2.3% when compared to the same time last year; this is the first time in three months that leases increased YoY.
  • The national occupancy rate (92.72%) declined 11 basis points WoW, and the YoY gap increased to -1.72%. However, the leased percentage rate (94.61%) was up slightly for the week by 2 basis points, and the gap vs. last year is down to -1.34%.
  • In terms of metropolitan statistical areas, San Diego, San Jose, Seattle and San Francisco were the markets with the biggest YoY drops in occupancy rate. San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose are also in the top three in terms YoY dips in leased percentage rate. Meanwhile Phoenix, Dallas and Tampa are the closest to erasing their YoY gaps in leased percentage rate.
  • At $1,737, the national net effective rent declined WoW by 30 basis points. The figure represented a 3.9% decrease from the same time last year. Atlanta (-12.4%), Orlando (-10.2%), San Jose (-8.5%) and San Francisco (-7.0%) had the biggest YoY declines.

Radix Weekly Data Report – June 3rd

At Radix, we’ve been keeping a close eye on both national and local performance data as the pandemic unfolds. As June arrives and the summer begins, I think we all wish we could just undo 2020 and start anew.

During the week ending on June 3, most of the major performance metrics were flat to slightly negative, according to our data.

Nationally, traffic was up on a week-over-week basis, and the metric has been making up for the ground it lost during the early stages of the pandemic. Leases were slightly down for the week, but now stand only 13.3% below versus the same time last year. If leasing pace continues to improve, we should be on par with last year in a few weeks. It will also be a strong sign of demand improvement from the low record hit during the first phase of the lockdowns.

While the national net effective rent dipped only by 0.4% WoW, the year-over-year gap has been increasing and now stands at -3.5%.

It is still too early to tell how much protests and riots have impacted traffic and leasing, but next week’s data should give us a better indication of the overall effect. This could be part of the explanation why markets that have opened and showed strong traffic and leases during the week ending on May 27 – such as Atlanta, Houston and Tampa – registered slight declines in this week’s data.

Here are some of the notable takeaways from the week ending on June 3:

  • Nationally, traffic was up 3.8% when compared to the preceding week, while leases were down 5.2% The metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with the biggest WoW traffic increase was Dallas (22.5%). The MSA with the largest WoW decline in leases was Los Angeles (-21.9%).
  • The national occupancy rate stood at 92.83%. That represents a dip of 0.01% from the preceding week and a decrease of 1.69% when compared to the same time last year. The MSA with the largest WoW decrease was Miami (-0.47%).
  • The national leased percentage rate was 94.59%. That’s a WoW decrease of 2 basis points and a YoY drop of 1.37%. The MSA with the biggest WoW decrease was San Antonio (-0.52%).
  • The national net effective rent was $1,744. That’s down 0.4% from the preceding week and down 3.5% from the same time last year. Chicago experienced the largest WoW decrease (-3.5%).

Radix Weekly Data Report – May 13th

Traffic and Leases Move Up From Pandemic Low

It’s been two months since the initial lockdowns started across the country. This week, we saw a number of other states start to open up, and our industry is showing some positive signs in terms of some leading indicators.

On a national basis, both traffic and leases were up during the week ending on May 13, according to data from Radix. Specifically, traffic and leases were up 8.7% and 6.6%, respectively, week over week. They were down 41.7% and 18.2%, respectively, year over year. On the plus side, the YoY deficits for these two metrics have been dropping in recent weeks. For example, leases were down more than 50% on a YoY basis just four to five weeks ago.

Nationally, the occupancy rate dipped 11 basis points to 92.85% during the seven days ending on May 13 (it was down 139 basis points YoY). However, that was the smallest WoW decline since the start of April.

The accordion effect of these leading indicators is now showing signs of more significantly impacting net effective rent (NER).

In the week of May 13, we saw the largest WoW drop in NER – 1.1% – since the pandemic began. And, for the first time since the coronavirus came to the U.S., we saw the YoY comparison dip into negative territory at -0.8%.

What could all this mean?

We could be seeing the first signs of demand stabilization as leading indicators are improving and stabilizing.

The slow but constant gains in traffic and leasing are encouraging and we are making up for the huge deficits we saw when the lockdowns started. Occupancy and leased percentage are, for now, also showing signs of slowing decline.

If this trend continues, operators might not see the need to be as aggressive with concessions and price decreases, thus stabilizing NER. But macroeconomics will play the key role, and for now we are seeing few signs of slowing job loss, which undoubtedly will have a negative impact.

Data from the week of May 13 revealed two other notable takeaways:

  • Four metropolitan statistical areas (Chicago, Las Vegas, Orlando and Tampa) experienced slight WoW increases in occupancy.
  • Over half of the 21 MSAs tracked by Radix showed positive WoW leased percentage trends.

Radix Weekly Data Report – April 22nd

Dear Radix Friends,

I hope this week finds you healthy and you are still managing through working from home and the new “normal.”  We are almost a month since most states started lockdowns and we are seeing reverberations across all markets. Also, leading indicators such as traffic and leases that declined precipitously have started stabilizing and indeed are slightly higher overall than last week. With occupancy and leased percentage trailing YoY trends, we have seen Net Effective Rents come down as well and erased the lead from the same time last year.

We are seeing an accordion effect with leading indicators slowing down quick and fast (traffic and leases) which are now indeed improving as different operators figure out ways to drive traffic and leases virtually. NER declines were more gradual, but are likely to persist as macroeconomic headwinds are very strong with continued lockdowns and unemployment increasing to record levels.

Please let me know if you have any questions or feedback.

Thanks and stay healthy,

Blerim